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AlavesAlaves vs Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1 - 2

La Liga logoLa Liga·Saturday 10 October at 15:15
Full timeMatch time
0'HT90'
Match eventsAlaves / Atletico Madrid
  1. 92'AYellow card - Johnny Cardoso
  2. 87'AGoal - Cristian Romero · Assist: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
  3. 79'HSubstitution - Aitor Mañas · for Denis Suárez
  4. 73'ASubstitution - Alexander Sørloth · for Giuliano Simeone Baldini
  5. 71'HSubstitution - Ville Koski · for Nicolas Valentini
  6. 64'HSubstitution - Carlos Protesoni · for Antonio Blanco
  7. 64'HSubstitution - Mariano Díaz · for Toni Martínez
  8. 64'HSubstitution - Ander Guevara · for Lucas Boyé
  9. 62'ASubstitution - Dávid Hancko · for Robin Le Normand
  10. 61'HRed card - Angel Pérez Hidalgo
  11. 57'ASubstitution - Lee Kang-In · for Pablo Barrios Rivas
  12. 51'HGoal - Lucas Boyé · Penalty
  13. 46'AYellow card - Robin Le Normand
  14. 45'AYellow card - Ademola Lookman
  15. 45'ASubstitution - Alejandro Baena Rodríguez · for Jonathan David
  16. 45'ASubstitution - Julián Álvarez · for Ademola Lookman
  17. 33'AGoal - Alejandro Grimaldo · Assist: Jonathan David
Attacking pressurefrom shots and corners so far
AlavesAtletico Madrid
25%75%
3
Shots on target
7
8
Shots
20
0
Corners
10
32
Possession %
68

Under 3.5 goals gets the nod at Alavés

Our pick

odds are estimates
  • Total Goals
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.36
    Medium confidenceWon

Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.

Full analysis

Under 3.5 goals is priced at 1.36, implying roughly a 74% chance; eight of the teams’ ten supplied recent results finished below that line. Alavés’ latest two matches ended 0-0 and 0-1, while Atlético’s latest three produced 2-1, 4-0 and 3-0 scorelines.

All five supplied head-to-heads contained three goals or fewer, although that history carries less weight than current form. Alavés’ 2.3 goals scored per home game and Atlético’s 2.0 away highlight the attacking risk, making the extra goal allowance preferable to under 2.5.

Medium confidence reflects the agreement between recent scorelines and head-to-head totals, with a modest estimated edge over the price. Alavés’ absences, Koski’s unresolved fitness and unpublished line-ups prevent a High rating, but the supporting results make this more than a Low-confidence lean.

This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. SharpTips does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

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